Modeling greenhouse gas emissions from the forestry sector – the case of Latvia

A system dynamics model for assessing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from forestry and forest land is presented in the paper. The model is based on the IPCC guidelines for national GHG inventories and includes the main elements of the forestry sector, i.e. changes in the living biomass, dead organic matter and soils. The developed model allows simulating various policies and measures implemented and decisions made, and their impact on change in the GHG emissions. Various scenarios of potential development in the medium-term planning were simulated till 2030 to assess their impact on the GHG emissions. It is found that the most sustainable option would be use of wood processing waste for production of e.g. wood chips or some added-value products. The case of Latvia is selected for simulations, as forests compose about 52% of the country’s area. Nevertheless, by changing specific parametric values the model can be adapted and applied for estimation and analysis of GHG emissions from forestry in other countries, as well.