Strategic Management and Security Risk Assessment of Energy Systems

This study examines methods for assessing the risks of energy systems that supply urban areas based on an integrated approach in which a qualitative assessment takes into account internal and external impacts as an element of a multifactorial analysis. A risk matrix is offered for risk assessment, which was built for energy infrastructure facilities and takes into account the features of the functioning of energy equipment which is potentially dangerous due to the probability of failures on a five-point scale and the possible degree of severity of the consequences due to the possibility of restoring the systems. The study proposes two statistical models for the assessment of reliability parameters before the onset of a critical situation and calculations after a critical event, i.e., the probability of the restoration or adaptation of the energy system object being analyzed and the degree of such restoration. This approach allows for the consideration of risks, taking into account both the technical condition of power equipment and environmental aspects, including their mutual influence, for sustainable management. This approach evaluates the energy system’s failure intensity and recovery probability based on the parameters developed to assess the system functionality and resilience effectively. A risk assessment using reliability parameters based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) showed that when sampling statistical data with a total number of n = 10, the accuracy of risk assessment according to indicator parameters increases by 15%, which is especially relevant for the potential safety of urban energy systems. A list of threats is proposed for the multifactorial risk analysis of an energy company based on an expert assessment of their likelihood and consequences. The constructed risk matrix reduces the level of threat, which helps to increase the efficiency of risk management both at the stages of planning and forecasting and during operation, including the management of socio-economic consequences.