Distribution of ecosystem service potential in marginal agroecosystems in a mosaic-type landscape under exploratory scenarios

Land-use change in agriculturally marginal mosaic-type landscapes involves economic, environmental, and social aspects and can lead to social and economic problems in rural areas. This study focuses on the western part of Vidzeme Uplands, Latvia, which has been heavily impacted by rural depopulation and agricultural land abandonment. The research explores the value of low-intensity agroecosystems in agriculturally marginal landscapes using an ecosystem service approach. Three scenarios were developed: a ‘business as usual’ scenario, a ‘no subsidies’ scenario, and a ‘payments for ecosystem services’ scenario. The ‘business as usual’ scenario shows a pattern of subtle intensification, while the ‘no subsidies’ scenario predicts a significant loss of low-intensity agroecosystems and their services. The ‘payments for ecosystem services’ scenario estimates the safeguarding of essential regulatory ecosystem services, ensuring the potential supply of provisioning services, and maintaining the fragile structure of the marginal mosaic-type landscape.