Emigration from Latvia: A Brief History and Driving Forces in the Twenty-First Century

In recent years, Latvia has established itself as one of the top two countries with the most intensive emigration among EU/EFTA member states. This chapter starts by describing the demographic context and the scale of emigration post-2000, followed by a brief history of the main population flows (migration, refugees and deportation) from and to Latvia in the twentieth century. It then offers a more detailed analysis of emigration during the first 15 years of the twenty-first century including a closer look at the four waves of recent emigration: (i) the pre-EU accession wave, 2000–2003; (ii) the post-accession wave, 2004–2008; (iii) the crisis-driven wave, 2009–2010; and (iv) the post-crisis wave, 2011–2016. For each wave, description of the economic and social context is given within a conceptual framework using insights from human capital theory, the new economic theory of migration, network theory and migration systems theory. Institutional factors are also emphasised. Together with some survey-based evidence, this leads to a set of hypotheses about the nature of the four emigration waves. Our own compilation of data from receiving countries (which reveals problems with Latvia’s official migration statistics) is used for documenting the dynamics of the scale and main destinations of this emigration. Empirical analysis of the changes in the reasons for and intended duration of emigration, its effects on the structure and demographic potential of the population and changes in emigrant profiles and selectivity with respect to human capital and ethnicity is based on a number of independent data sources, including the Latvian Labour Force Survey (2000–2015), the Database of Immigrants in OECD Countries (DIOC 2010/2011), and The Emigrant Communities of Latvia survey conducted worldwide in 2014.